Study on Land Use Simulation based on PLUS Model
Land use change, as an important issue in ecological environment and socio-economic development, has long attracted the attention of academia and policy makers. The Yellow River Basin, as an important water system and agricultural production area in China, has land use changes that are not only related to regional ecological security, but also involve multiple aspects such as water resources management, agricultural production, and urbanization. As an important part of the Yellow River Basin, the Henan section is facing the joint influence of multiple factors such as population growth, economic development, and climate change. The land use pattern may undergo profound changes in the next few decades. Therefore, studying the future land use changes in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) is of great significance for formulating scientific land use planning and regional development strategies. This paper first analyzes the current status of land use in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) in the past 30 years and its main change trends. Then, based on the PLUS model, a variety of driving factors are selected, and four scenarios of natural development, farmland protection, ecological protection, and economic development are set to simulate and predict the future land use changes in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section).
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