Non-equilibrium Evolution of Water Resources and Future Trend Projections in the Xiabuqu River Basin

Siyu Lai; Baodeng Hou; Nanjia Zaxi

doi:10.6911/WSRJ.202609_12(9).0012

Non-equilibrium Evolution of Water Resources and Future Trend Projections in the Xiabuqu River Basin

Siyu Lai, Baodeng Hou, Nanjia Zaxi

World Scientific Research Journal, (2026), Vol.12, No.9, pp.107-115

Published: September 16, 2026

DOI: 10.6911/WSRJ.202609_12(9).0012

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Abstract

Runoff in the Xiabuqu River Basin, a first-order tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo River, was reconstructed by combining WEP-L with HMETS and a degree-day glacier-melt module. The coupled scheme yielded an NSE of 0.8158, higher than the performance of the individual runoff models. For 1978–2020, the reconstructed annual water-resource volume averaged 754 million m³, but varied considerably from year to year. Rainfall supplied 94.69% of runoff on average, whereas snowmelt and glacier melt made much smaller contributions. Projections under SSP245 and SSP585 indicate a modest decrease in mean water resources over the next three decades. Meanwhile, interannual and seasonal variability increases, suggesting less stable water availability and a greater likelihood of both wet and dry extremes.

Keywords: Runoff simulation; hydrological model; climate model; trend projection; Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau; Xiabuqu River.

APA Citation: Siyu Lai, Baodeng Hou, Nanjia Zaxi (2026). Non-equilibrium Evolution of Water Resources and Future Trend Projections in the Xiabuqu River Basin. World Scientific Research Journal, 12(9), 107-115. https://doi.org/10.6911/WSRJ.202609_12(9).0012

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